begged the armed and witch-doctor anointed deep-mine rock-drillers to stand back from any confrontation with the police, but this work-based group by this time wanted a showdown and were led to believe they had become invisible and invincible. However, I don't believe they acted without a more radical labour-ideology being agitated — against both NUM and AMCU. Few labour thinkers woud attribute their titely disciplined armed action as "spontaneous." The spontaneist school of labour and political armed action does not have a credible trackrecord for the accuracy of its analysis. Mr. Malala does not enter that zone of discussion, which indeed is frawt with pitfalls. I only brush up against this area of thinking which requires further work.
— Albert Gedraitis
Shay Riley's Booker Rising (Jan1,2k13)
Posted: 20 Aug 2012 03:00 AM PDT

He continues his commentary: "Over the past few years, the NUM has been split by succession battles inside the ANC, with the current leadership campaigning for ANC President Jacob Zuma to win a second term [Zuma was re-elected]. The union has paid a heavy price for this. At the Lonmin mines, [NUM's] membership has declined from 66 per cent of workers to 49 per cent and it has lost its organisational rights. Disgruntled and expelled union leaders had in the meantime started a new union, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, and were organising on the NUM’s turf."
More: "On the ground, armed workers are promising to 'take a bullet with my fellow workers'. Traditional doctors have been anointing strikers with potions, allegedly making them invincible. The AMCU’s [Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, a new rival union] leaders are preparing for war. The NUM has lost all credibility and is bleeding members. Its already well-paid secretary, [Frans] Baleni, was awarded a salary increase of more than 40 per cent last year. NUM leaders have refused to get out of police armoured vehicles to address workers. Last year, one of them was struck with a brick and lost an eye. They have no cogent plan to end the strike. The police, too, have lost credibility. Although the indications are that they were shot at, a death count of 34 in three minutes suggests panic. A judicial inquiry is likely."